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Oscars Best Picture Predictions 2020

It’s that time of year again where the Hollywood will gather to celebrate the year’s most prestigious awards, The Academy Awards, better known as The Oscars. 2019 Was an amazing year for movies and judging by the best picture nominations, The Oscars 2020 is going to be a tight race to the most glamorous prize. We take a look at each movie nominated and discuss the reasons it should win as well as the reasons it won’t. And the Oscar goes to…


1917

During the First World War, Lance Corporal Schofield and Lance Corporal Blake two young men in the British army must venture deep behind enemy lines to deliver a critical message that could prevent the massacre of a British battalion in a trap laid by the enemy. At the bidding of their superior officers, the young privates put their own lives on the line, as it could mean the difference between life and death for 1,600 of their brothers in arms, including Blake’s own brother. 

Why It Should Win:

A unique take on the horrors of the Great War, director Sam Mendes and Director of Photography Roger Deakins has crafted not only a harrowing experience of two soldiers in the Great War, but a beautifully and uniquely shot war film that stands apart from its contemporaries. Add in brilliant performances from George Mackay, Dean-Charles Chapman, Colin Firth and Benedict Cumberbatch this film is an instant classic.

Why It Won’t Win:

The last “war“ movie that won the highly prized Oscar was The Hurt Locker in 2009 and overall only 16 war-related movies have ever won an Oscar for best picture in the history of the Academy Awards. Considering that the last World War 1 based movie that won an Oscar was Lawrence of Arabia in 1962, history does not seem to favor 1917.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

It 1969 Los Angeles, where a golden era of Hollywood is coming to a dramatic and sudden end. TV star Rick Dalton and his lifelong stunt double Cliff Booth make their way around an industry they hardly recognize anymore. The hard-drinking, fading cowboy/action star Rick Dalton struggles with his career, trying to decide whether to continue playing bad guys in TV pilots or go to Italy to make Spaghetti Westerns. Cliff Booth is now largely unemployable and passes the time driving Rick around and taking care of Rick’s home maintenance. Trouble arises when Cliff picks up a hitchhiker and takes her to the Spahn Ranch, where the soon-to-be notorious Manson Family lives. And a terrible coincidence brings the cult members back to Hollywood.

Why It Should Win:

Possibly Quentin Tarantino’s finest film oozes his usual style, violence and social commentary he has become so renowned for. However, unlike his previous films, Once Upon a Time… sees a more reflective and wiser Tarantino. A cleverly crafted story, matched by award-winning performances from Leonardo Di Caprio and Brad Pitt could possibly bring the controversial director his first-ever Best Picture Oscar.

Why It Won’t Win:

The Academy does seem to have a certain disdain for Tarantino, he plays by his own rules and his movies often cause controversies, something the judges at the Academy frown upon. True, Tarantino has won two Oscars for best original screenplay, yet the granddaddy of the Oscars has eluded him for over 24 years now.

Parasite

A man named Ki-taek and his family struggle with poverty and unemployment. Their polar opposites, the Park family, lead a life of luxury and wealth. Ki-taek’s family grows more fascinated with the Parks by the day until they find themselves in the thick of an unexpected and significant incident. Director Joon-ho Bong toys with the conventions of genre in this dark comedy meets thriller.

Why It Should Win:

South Korean director Joon-ho Bong has directed some masterpieces in his time and although many of his films are unknown to an American audience, Parasite managed to grab the headlines for all the right reasons. It’s a wonderfully written story and masterfully directed. Also, no foreign film has ever won the Best Picture category, so 2020 might see the South Korean film making history.

Why It Won’t Win:

No foreign film has ever won the Best Picture Oscar. It’s hard to believe considering the wonderful movies that have appeared from around the world in the last few decades and one can only assume that there is a certain bias to “English” films. Not a good sign for Parasite.

The Irishman

The Irishman is a biographical crime thriller that follows Frank Sheeran as he recalls his past years working for the Bufalino crime family. Now older, the WWII veteran once again reflects on his most prolific hits and, in particular, considers his involvement with his good friend Jimmy Hoffa’s disappearance in 1975.

Why It Should Win:

It’s an absolute crime that Martin Scorsese has only won one Oscar in his entire career, Best Director for The Departed, considering the genre-defining movies he has directed in the past. From Goodfellas to Raging Bull to Taxi Driver to The King of Comedy, Scorsese has overseen some of the greatest films of all time. Will the Academy finally recognize his brilliance this year?

Why It Won’t Win:

Much like Tarantino, Scorsese is a director that attracts controversy with his films and it’s clear the Academy feels that honoring these films beneath the “glamour” of the Oscars. Sadly, as good as The Irishman” is, it doesn’t come close to his past work. Even heavy hitters like Al Pacino and Robert de Niro might not be able to convince the judges otherwise. Also, its links to Netflix will do the film no favor.

Joker

In an unsettling origin story to Batman’s greatest nemesis, Arthur Fleck exists on the fringes of society and is utterly ignored by others. His outcast existence begins to take a toll on his mental state, his narrative an unnerving study on the extent to which a person can unravel. 

Why It Should Win:

It’s a brilliant case study on mental illness and the effect society can have on an individual. It takes a comic book character and turns him into a sympathetic, although unstable, anti-hero going against society and the powers that be. It’s a risky take, especially in today’s political climate, but director Todd Phillips and the jaw-dropping performance from Joaquin Phoenix elevates the source material way beyond any one’s expectation.

Why It Won’t Win:

On paper, Joker is a DC comic book movie and it’s no secret what the Academy thinks of comic book movies. During the pre-release of the film, the media hysterically proclaimed that the film will incite the incels and that police should be stationed in movie theatres around the country. Big old controversy for the sake of controversy and of course as we have established beforehand, the Academy hates controversy.

Ford v Ferrari

In the 1960s, Ferrari is an untouchable figure in racing. With Enzo Ferrari ardently chasing after excellence, the company is irrefutably the best there is. Ford’s Henry Ford II wants in on the success, and so he journeys to Italy to propose a merger with the automobile giant. His plan, however, is met with ridicule. With a hurt ego, he enlists the help of car designer Carroll Shelby and driver Ken Miles to build a car that would defeat Ferrari at the 24 Hours of Le Mans. 

Why It Should Win:

A fascinating and incredibly well-crafted biopic on the rivalry between Ford and Ferrari, director James Mansgold does an incredible job of capturing the intensity of the Le Mans race. Beautiful cinematography accompanied by a great cast, Ford v Ferrari might be the outsiders favorite to take the prize home. It’s late release in the year also means it will still be fresh in people’s minds.

Why It Won’t Win:

Although it ticks all the Best Picture boxes and has just the right mix of action and drama, the Academy tends to steer clear racing flicks. No movie based on racing has ever won the Best Picture award unless you consider Driving Miss Daisy a white-knuckled racing movie.

Jojo Rabbit

It is the latter part of World War II, and all Jojo Betzler wants is to become a Nazi. He turns to his 10-year-old imagination and begins to befriend a wackier version of Nazi Germany’s ruler, Adolf Hitler. One day, he finds out that his mother, Rosie is housing a Jewish girl named Elsa. Despite going directly against his young beliefs, he has no choice but to keep quiet for his and his family’s safety. Soon, he and his imaginary friend begin to see the world differently. 

Why It Should Win:

It’s odd, it’s different and it’s a brilliantly funny take on a very controversial topic. Writer and director Taika Waititi has an incredible ability to take quite a serious and touchy subject and find a way to tell a story in a funny way. It’s such a unique and brilliantly written story that deserves to be among the top movies of the year.

Why It Won’t Win:

Oddball indie films hardly ever win and funny movies even less so. Apparently, if a movie has some laughs it’s not considered worthy of best picture. One only has to go through the previous winners to see that heart-wrenching dramas are right up the judges’ alley.

Little Women

“Based on the novel by Louisa May Alcott, the four March sisters learn about love, life, and loss as they grow through their young womanhood against the backdrop of post-Civil War America. At the heart of the family is the headstrong Jo March who aspires, above all else, to forge her own path. Directed by Greta Gerwig, co-starring Emma Watson, Florence Pugh, Eliza Scanlen, and Laura Dern. 

Why It Should Win:

It’s a wonderful rendition of one of the most well-known books in history. Director Greta Gerwig has an amazing knack of getting the best out of her actors and the cast of Little Women is the cream of the crop of current young female actors. Period piece movies are always a favorite amongst the judges and this film has an outside chance of causing an upset.

Why It Won’t Win:

The problem with adapting such a well-known book is that it is a well-trodden path. Considering there have been 5 major film adaptations of Little Women (the most recent in 2018) and not mentioning the various mini-series, theatre productions, ballet performances, and even an anime series, Little Women just doesn’t hold one’s attention or delivers any surprises, no matter how great the direction or performances.

Marriage Story

A theater director (Adam Driver) and his actress wife (Scarlett Johansson) struggle to make their marriage last. When their contentious relationship brings them to a difficult divorce battle that spans the country, they find themselves delving into their creative sides in ways they never before imagined. 

Why It Should Win:

With an incredible screenplay and award-winning performances from Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, director Noah Baumbach delivers a film that is not only relatable but hits are the right beats when dissecting the trials and tribulations of marriage. Devoid of fancy 3D animations and FX laden shots, it’s a simple movie that tells an incredible story.

Why It Won’t Win:

It’s no secret what the Academy and certain directors (Spielberg we’re looking at you) think of Netflix movies. Many in Hollywood consider the streaming service as a second class citizen to its big blockbuster behemoth production houses. An incredible movie move that might be hamstrung due to who released it.